Weekly update:
The latest US economic indicators paint a mixed picture, with the Producer Price Index
data released on Friday indicating unexpected spikes in core PPI and PPI excluding
food, energy, and trade services, marking the most significant monthly increase since
January 2023. This rise in inflation was primarily fueled by a notable rise in final demand
services, offsetting a decline in goods prices. However, January also saw a substantial
14.8% drop in housing starts, contrary to expectations of stability. Earlier in the week,
the Consumer Price Index data for January revealed higher-than-anticipated inflation
across the board, with both CPI and core CPI surpassing expectations, signaling
continued price pressures. Despite these inflationary pressures, escalating tensions
between Israel and Hezbollah were somewhat assuaged by disappointing retail sales
and housing starts data. Consequently, market expectations regarding aggressive rate
cuts have softened, with reduced probabilities assigned to both March and May rate
cuts. However, there's a slight uptick in the probability of a rate cut in June compared to
previous estimates.
Indexes:
Asian stocks gained with Nikkei 225 closing the week at 38,487.24 (4.26%) and Hang
Seng Index at 16,339.96 (2.20%) . The Nasdaq 100 has been falling the whole week
and closed at 17,685.64 (-1.43%), as well as Dow Jones Industrial Average with
38,621.21 (-0.07%), and S&P 500 with 5,005.57 (-0.42%).
Bonds:
As for 18th February the 10-year treasury yield ended the week at 4.294%, 30-year with
4.437%, and 5-year with 4.276%. UK 10-year lost 0.005 points translating to yield of
4.106%. China 10-year lost 0.004 points and ended at 2.459%. Mexico 10-year keeps
the height of 9.303%, though it lost 0.011 points.
Commodities:
Oil prices steadied on Friday, with Brent crude futures slightly down at $82.69 a barrel
and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slightly up at $78.62, although
geopolitical tensions and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal
Reserve. The International Energy Agency's revised demand forecast, indicating
slowing global oil demand growth for 2024, countered optimism, contrasting with
OPEC's outlook. Spot gold closed slightly up on Friday at $2,013, but recorded its
second consecutive weekly loss, closing nearly 0.50% lower. In spite of inflation and
mentioned concerns benefiting gold towards the end of the week, it remains a weak
inflation hedge, and the tensions also haven't reached a significant level to sustainably
support gold prices. With ten-year US yields rising and the US Dollar Index also up for the week, gold faces vulnerability due to diminishing expectations of early and
substantial rate cuts, lacking a major trigger to bolster its price.
Crypto Market:
Bitcoin experienced unusual volatility over the weekend, initially dropping by
approximately $1,500 before recovering most losses, and hovering around $48,000 as
for 18th February, 9pm. Altcoins followed suit, with ETH surpassing $2,800 and SOL
reaching $110. BTC's recent path saw significant gains, hitting $50,000 (12th Feb) for
the first time in over two years. However, the release of US CPI numbers briefly
dampened bullish sentiment, causing a drop to $48,500, though BTC quickly resumed
its upward trend. The rally eventually paused, with Bitcoin experiencing a period of
relative stability.

Flow Traders Investment Competition

After we have experienced a really high volatility on the exchanges last week, this is a good moment to see how our very own Investment Groups have performed. Heeren XIII climbed 6 spots in the ranking last week by having a 2.20% return but also for our most volatile groups Andromeda and Nova Capital it has been a great week! Both their returns were over 10% in just one week! Unfortunately, Aurelia and Phoenix experienced a setback this week as they have both lost 11 spots...